A report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) states that the global temperature limit will rise significantly within five years. The analysis is based on modeling by the UK Meteorological Service and climate researchers in 10 countries, including the US and China. An important study states that by 2025, there is a 40% chance that at least one year will be 1.5 ° C hotter than the pre-industrial period.
Talking in Numbers
It is estimated that over the last decade, the probability of reaching the 1.5 ° C limit at least for one year has been only 20%. According to the new assessment, the possibility of this risk is increased up to 40%. The aim of the Paris Agreement is an unacceptable rise in global average temperatures of more than 2 ° C and an effort not to exceed 1.5 ° C. Leon Hermanson, a senior scientist at the Meteorological Service, says the temperature is clearly rising. This means that we are approaching 1.5 ° C. We have not yet reached this limit, but we are already approaching. There is less and less time to take the decisive action we need now.
Natural variability means that the average temperature of the next few years may be a little cooler, and it may take another decade, two or more for the 1.5 ° C limit to be exceeded permanently. According to Dr Joeri Rogelj, Director of Research at Imperial College London, 1.5 ° C should not be confused with the 1.5 ° C limit set by the Paris Agreement.
The goals of the Paris Agreement relate to global warming. This means an increase in the temperature of our planet as we smooth out the annual fluctuations. Therefore, one year when 1.5 ° C is reached does not mean that the Paris border has been breached, but it is still very bad news, as it shows once again that completely insufficient action has been taken so far to curb climate change.
2018 An important report by the UN Climate Expert Group highlighted that the effects of climate change are much more severe when climate change increases by more than 1.5 ° C. At present, projections suggest that, even in the light of recent commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures could rise by more than 3 ° C.
New Hurricane Season Stronger Than Usual
The Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and runs through November 30, will bring another wave of above-average storm formation, following in the footsteps of a record 2020 season, according to the latest U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast. NOAA scientists have predicted that we are likely to experience higher than normal hurricane activity this year: there is a 70% chance of 13 to 20 storms, of which 6 to 10 will become hurricanes, and as many as five could escalate to major hurricanes at 179 km/ h.
Evidence suggests that the number of stronger and wetter storms is increasing, and there is growing evidence to link this change to climate change and global warming. Most of the climatic conditions that led to the active hurricane season in 2020 will continue in 2021: the very warm waters of the Atlantic and Caribbean and the strong monsoons of West Africa.